IPL 2023 playoffs scenarios: MI, RCB to slug it out for 4th spot; RR to wait and hope as KKR fall off

KKR’s one-run defeat to LSG brought an end to their playoff chances that were already hanging by a thread before the game started.

Kolkata Knight Riders’ (KKR) race for the 2023 season of the Indian Premier League (IPL) came to an end in a rather thrilling fashion. As has been the case for much of the season, Rinku Singh kept them alive in a 177-run chase until effectively the second last ball of the match and in the process, they ensured that LSG qualify but only as the third-placed team.

The result meant that there is now only one playoff spot left and both Mumbai Indians (MI) and Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) will be fighting for it on Sunday in the last pair of league matches for this season. The two sides are not facing each other though – MI play Sunrisers Hyderabad in the first match of the day after which RCB host table-toppers Gujarat Titans. It is hard to say which team has the more difficult task – while SRH have hardly been as much of a challenge as GT this season, MI are facing a side that have nothing to lose while they themselves have all kinds of pressure on them.

RCB, MI and RR are level on 14 points. With a net run rate of +0.180, RCB are sitting on fourth while MI’s NRR of -0.128 puts them below fifth-placed RR. This means that close wins for both sides would mean that RCB would go through. Similarly, the table positions will remain unchanged if RCB win their match and MI lose theirs. On the other hand, MI will go through by their superior tally of points if they win their game and RCB lose to GT.

For MI to go through despite both sides winning, their margin of victory has to be higher than RCB’s by at least 78 runs. It means that even if RCB win their game by just a run, MI should have won theirs by 79 to go through.

Meanwhile, the only way RR can stand a chance at qualifying for the playoffs is if both MI and RCB lose. In such a scenario, it will come to the NRRs of RR and RCB since MI’s is already lesser than that of the former. If RCB bat first and score 180, RR need GT to chase down the target in 19.3 overs or before. If RCB field first and concede 180, RR need GT to restrict RCB to 174 or less.

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